March 2006

A periodic newsletter on a single topic of interest published by the Office of Higher Education


Sixty-Four Percent of Minnesota High School Graduates Choose College
Many graduates still not enrolling in college after high school

This issue of Insight explores the college attendance patterns of Minnesota's 2004 high school graduates. With college decisions weighing heavy on the minds of some high school seniors this spring, it is interesting to note the decisions of their predecessors. Though nearly half of high school graduates choose colleges in their home state, the next largest group comprises those who do not pursue college following high school. Another 16.4 percent of 2004 graduates selected colleges out of state.

Sixty-four percent of Minnesota's 2004 high school graduates attended college the following fall. That rate is the same as the national participation rate for 2003, which is the last year data are available.1 Of the 65,574 Minnesota high school graduates in 2004:

  • 47.8%, or 31,231 graduates, attended 96 institutions in Minnesota [view table]
     
  • 16.4%, or 10,766 graduates, attended 773 institutions out of state [view table]
     
  • 35.8%, or 23,577 graduates, did not enroll in college anywhere

Of the students who enrolled in Minnesota institutions, 40 percent went to a community or technical college. Nineteen percent enrolled at the University of Minnesota, 19 percent enrolled at state universities, 19 percent enrolled in Minnesota's non-profit four-year institutions and three percent went to private for-profit career schools.

Students Choose Colleges Coast to Coast
Of the 10,766 students who enrolled in a college out of state, 66 percent, or 7,130, attended an institution in a state bordering Minnesota (Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota or Wisconsin). Many Minnesota residents take advantage of statewide reciprocity agreements that Minnesota has with Wisconsin, South Dakota and North Dakota. These agreements reduce tuition and admissions barriers for Minnesota residents who want to attend schools in these neighboring states.

Of the 3,636 students who attended institutions in states not adjacent to Minnesota's border, attendance was scattered across the country. [view table]

Institutions located in the Rocky Mountain region (Colorado, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming) were also popular destinations for recent Minnesota high school graduates, followed by other institutions in the Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio), and the Southwest region (Arizona) of the United States.

Participation Grows Slowly
Participation rates for attendance at colleges within Minnesota increased from 42 percent in 1995 to 48 percent in 2004. Over the same period, overall rates for attendance at Minnesota colleges and elsewhere increased from 57 percent to 64 percent.

Minnesota compares well with other states in what are known as education transitions. Depending on the study, Minnesota ranks second2 or third3 nationally, behind New Jersey and North Dakota, in the chance ninth graders have of enrolling in college by age 19.

College participation rates are defined as the number of high school graduates who enroll in a post-secondary education institution the fall after high school graduation. Minnesota's participation rate provides a glimpse of student behavior in the months following high school graduation. The rate provides an indicator of whether post-secondary education is accessible to a broad socio-economic range of high school graduates, as well as whether Minnesota and the nation are preparing people with skills to meet future workforce demands. (A detailed description of how rates are calculated can be found at the end of this report.)

Achievement Gap Persists
Participation rates by race and ethnicity are available only for students attending Minnesota institutions, so a complete picture of participation by race and ethnicity is not available. Within Minnesota, the participation rates dipped noticeably for students of color, particularly Black, American Indian and Hispanic students, in 2004. While the changes may be due in part to natural fluctuations in decisions by relatively small groups of students, the drop indicates that the higher rates of participation for students of color posted for 2003 may have been an aberration.

While participation rates for various racial and ethnic populations can vary by several percentage points from year to year, Asian high school graduates typically enroll in Minnesota post-secondary institutions at rates higher than other populations. White high school graduates have the next highest participation rate, followed by Black, Hispanic, and American Indian high school graduates.

Participation Rates of Minnesota High School Graduates Enrolled in Minnesota Post-Secondary Institutions
by Racial/Ethnic Background, 2004

American Indian 34.6%
Asian and Pacific Islander 54.0%
Black 41.3%
Hispanic 33.7%
TOTAL STUDENTS OF COLOR 44.1%
   
White, Non-Hispanic 48.1%
   
TOTAL ALL STUDENTS 47.6%

(Participation estimates for enrollment out-of-state are not available by race and ethnicity.)

Because some fluctuation in the rates from year to year are expected, a look at the recent five-year averages is recommended for the most accurate picture of participation by racial or ethnic group. Still, the decline in participation for Black, American Indian and Hispanic students in 2004 is a concern and worthy of attention.

Five-year average college participation rates of Minnesota high school graduates who enrolled in a Minnesota post-secondary institution, fall 2000 to 2004

Changing Demographics
The number of Minnesota recent high school graduates of color who enrolled in a Minnesota post-secondary institution increased 32 percent from 2000 to 2004, from 2,772 to 3,663, compared to 4 percent for white students. During the same period, the number of Black recent high school graduates enrolled in college increased 44 percent compared to 28 percent for Asian, 16 percent for Hispanic, and 40 percent for American Indian students.

The increasing numbers should not mask the fact that the percentages of college-bound students of color in these groups is not growing as consistently or rapidly as for white students.

Minnesota's population is becoming more diverse, whether through foreign immigration, natural population growth, or secondary migration from other states. In 2004, 13 percent of Minnesota high school graduates were students of color. Projections indicate that by 2015, students of color will comprise about 20 percent of Minnesota high school graduates. The largest increases are projected to be in the number of Hispanic and Black graduates—two student populations with historically low college participation and low high school graduation rates.

Participation Rates of Minnesota High School Graduates
by Racial/Ethnic Background, 2004

Black American Indian Asian Hispanic
Part Rate NES Part Rate NES Part Rate NES Part Rate NES

199539.5%44140.2%21551.4%85935.3%259
199633.8%40640.5%21545.5%74237.5%264
199738.6%52028.7%17549.3%81738.3%305
199837.0%60432.1%21648.7%93140.7%367
199938.8%69138.7%26752.6%1,17340.0%357
200043.9%83031.3%21852.9%1,32741.5%397
200140.1%79335.2%24355.9%1,48241.0%404
200244.3%1,00739.5%28057.2%1,57840.4%447
200351.5%1,38342.3%33558.6%1,70140.0%491
200441.3%1,19634.6%30554.0%1,70233.7%460
 
Total Students of Color White Total Est. Enrolled Out-of-State Total Enrolled Anywhere
Part Rate NES Part Rate NES Part Rate NES

199543.8%1,77442.3%20,03842.4%21,81514.7%57.1%
199640.0%1,62741.5%20,50841.3%22,13814.7%56.0%
199741.2%1,81744.5%22,68844.2%24,50814.7%58.9%
199841.4%2,11842.4%22,66942.3%24,78914.3%56.5%
199944.5%2,48745.9%25,75645.8%28,24614.3%60.1%
200045.8%2,77247.6%26,45647.5%29,23115.4%62.9%
200146.3%2,92250.5%27,54550.1%30,46712.7%62.8%
200248.4%3,31148.9%26,74948.8%30,06016.3%65.1%
200351.4%3,90950.7%28,56150.8%32,47014.7%65.4%
200444.1%3,66348.1%27,56947.6%31,23116.4%64.1%

NES: New entering students who graduated from a Minnesota high school the previous spring. Data are adjusted for missing values.

Estimated out-of-state enrollments are from the National Center for Education Statistics IPEDS enrollment residency and migration data.

About Participation Rates
Participation rates are calculated by dividing the number of Minnesota high school graduates by the number who attended a Minnesota post-secondary institution the fall following their year of high school graduation. The Office of Higher Education's student enrollment record database contains data on students' year of high school graduation, state of residence, and high school attended. New entering students, defined as not having previously attended a post-secondary institution, except while a secondary student, are used in calculating participation rates.

The numbers of high school graduates are obtained from the Minnesota Department of Education. Students who graduate from high school and delay college entry past the fall following high school graduation are not included in the participation rate. Data on enrolled students are revised to estimate missing information. Participation rates contain adjustments for:

  • Missing year of high school graduation of new entering post-secondary students
  • Missing data on racial/ethnic identity of new entering post-secondary students
  • Missing data on racial/ethnic identity of all private high school graduates

Data on the number of students who attend a post-secondary institution out-of-state are obtained from the National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS enrollment survey, collected biannually. Institutions report the state of residence of freshmen who graduated from high school during the past 12 months.

The participation rate provides one measure along a complex educational pathway. Longitudinal studies and surveys, such as the 2006 Toolbox Revisited by the U.S. Department of Education, provide a more comprehensive picture of the student experience over time, however no such longitudinal study has been conducted in recent years for Minnesota.

For more information on the process and methodology or participation rates in general, contact Alexandra Djurovich.

References:

  1. U.S. Dept. of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, The Condition of Education 2005. [ back ]
  2. "Chance for College by Age 19 by State 1986 to 2002." Postsecondary Education Opportunity. Oskaloosa, Iowa. Number 149, November 2004. [ back ]
  3. The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education. The Educational Pipeline Policy Alert. San Jose, California. April 2004. [ back ]

About the Office of Higher Education

The Office of Higher Education is a state agency providing students with financial aid programs and information to help them gain access to post-secondary education. The agency serves as the state's clearinghouse for data, research and analysis on post-secondary enrollment, financial aid, finance and trends.

The Minnesota State Grant program, which is administered by the agency, is a need-based tuition assistance program for Minnesota students. The agency also oversees tuition reciprocity programs, a student loan program, Minnesota's 529 college savings program, licensing and an early awareness outreach initiative for youth. Through collaboration with systems and institutions, the agency assists in the development of the state's education technology infrastructure and shared library resources.


» TABLE OF CONTENTS «

Students Choose Colleges Coast to Coast

Participation Grows Slowly

Achievement Gap Persists

Changing Demographics

About Participation Rates


» RELATED TOPICS «

College Prep Activity

College-going Activity by High School

Educational Attainment

Tuition Reciprocity


» FEATURED LINKS «

Minnesota Department of Education high school graduation data

State comparisons using six other measures of participation

National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education educational pipeline report [.pdf]

National Center for Education Statistics data on immediate transition to college

The Toolbox Revisited: Paths to Degree Completion From High School Through College

Inside Higher Education: Students Heading South


» NEWS ALERTS «

Be notified by e-mail each time the Office of Higher Education posts a news release to its web site. To subscribe, send an e-mail message to:

listmaster@ohe.state.mn.us

Include "subscribe news your_e-mail_address" in the body of the message.

If you have trouble subscribing, please send an e-mail message to:

news-owner@ohe.state.mn.us


» PROVIDE FEEDBACK «

Author
Alexandra Djurovich
Research and Policy Analyst

Editor
Barb Schlaefer
Director of Communications