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High School Graduate Projections
Minnesota High School Graduates to Peak in 2010
The number of high school graduates in Minnesota is projected to decline over the next seven years from 65,073 in 2010 to 59,727 by 2017, a drop of 5,346 students. From 2017 to 2023 the number of graduates is expected to increase slightly, but will remain below the 2010 number of graduates for the state. The high school graduate projections were developed by the Minnesota State Demographic Center for the Office of Higher Education.
Students of color will comprise a larger share of high school graduates in the future. The number of nonwhite graduates is projected to grow by 4,713 students, from 16 percent of all graduates in 2010 to 23 percent of all graduates in 13 years. During the same period, the number of white graduates is projected to decline 12 percent, or by 6,511 students.
More information on Minnesota high school graduate projections.
For high school graduation projections from other states, see Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by state and race/ethnicity. This report was published in December 2012, by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), ACT, and the College Board.
Minnesota Projections by Race/Ethnicity and Gender
Minnesota Public and Private High School Graduates
| School Year End | American Indian Males | American Indian Females | Asian Males | Asian Females | Hispanic Males | Hispanic Females | Black Males | Black Females | Total Students of Color |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 451 | 519 | 1,737 | 1,642 | 937 | 921 | 1,954 | 1,958 | 10,119 |
| 2011 | 430 | 475 | 1,577 | 1,714 | 957 | 946 | 1,931 | 2,068 | 10,099 |
| 2012 | 425 | 469 | 1,724 | 1,693 | 993 | 998 | 1,869 | 1,982 | 10,153 |
| 2013 | 407 | 445 | 1,724 | 1,678 | 1,046 | 1,013 | 1,763 | 1,895 | 9,971 |
| 2014 | 399 | 452 | 1,652 | 1,736 | 1,077 | 1,035 | 1,893 | 1,913 | 10,155 |
| 2015 | 390 | 469 | 1,753 | 1,763 | 1,143 | 1,123 | 1,885 | 2,019 | 10,545 |
| 2016 | 409 | 443 | 1,785 | 1,847 | 1,292 | 1,201 | 1,933 | 2,102 | 11,012 |
| 2017 | 423 | 469 | 1,757 | 1,789 | 1,214 | 1,286 | 1,961 | 2,175 | 11,076 |
| 2018 | 406 | 455 | 1,792 | 1,912 | 1,368 | 1,383 | 2,137 | 2,259 | 11,713 |
| 2019 | 411 | 493 | 2,021 | 2,077 | 1,428 | 1,400 | 2,276 | 2,367 | 12,473 |
| 2020 | 442 | 485 | 2,082 | 2,135 | 1,563 | 1,550 | 2,377 | 2,523 | 13,156 |
| 2021 | 462 | 506 | 2,226 | 2,165 | 1,577 | 1,629 | 2,365 | 2,468 | 13,397 |
| 2022 | 484 | 536 | 2,257 | 2,300 | 1,641 | 1,645 | 2,515 | 2,584 | 13,961 |
| 2023 | 477 | 552 | 2,324 | 2,410 | 1,817 | 1,827 | 2,701 | 2,723 | 14,832 |
| Year | White Males | White Females | Total White | Total Males | Total Females | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 27,517 | 27,436 | 54,954 | 32,596 | 32,477 | 65,073 |
| 2011 | 27,147 | 27,162 | 54,308 | 32,042 | 32,365 | 64,407 |
| 2012 | 26,817 | 26,634 | 53,451 | 31,828 | 31,776 | 63,604 |
| 2013 | 25,827 | 25,893 | 51,720 | 30,767 | 30,924 | 61,691 |
| 2014 | 25,372 | 25,368 | 50,741 | 30,392 | 30,504 | 60,896 |
| 2015 | 24,503 | 24,706 | 49,209 | 29,675 | 30,080 | 59,754 |
| 2016 | 24,445 | 24,590 | 49,035 | 29,864 | 30,183 | 60,047 |
| 2017 | 24,154 | 24,497 | 48,651 | 29,510 | 30,217 | 59,727 |
| 2018 | 24,256 | 24,261 | 48,517 | 29,959 | 30,270 | 60,229 |
| 2019 | 24,060 | 24,189 | 48,249 | 30,196 | 30,526 | 60,722 |
| 2020 | 24,111 | 24,209 | 48,320 | 30,574 | 30,903 | 61,477 |
| 2021 | 23,544 | 23,660 | 47,204 | 30,173 | 30,427 | 60,601 |
| 2022 | 23,810 | 24,257 | 48,067 | 30,706 | 31,323 | 62,028 |
| 2023 | 24,016 | 24,427 | 48,443 | 31,335 | 31,939 | 63,274 |
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center
